Tension of Iran Becomes Greater (Source: Sohu.com, Xinhua.com)

◆Since the Strait of Hormuz plays a fairly stragetical role in oil transportation, once it is about to be closed by Iran, oil exportingcountries will likely be confronted with shortage in supply so that the international oil price is due to skyrocket.

◆Under the current deadlock, western coutries only consider to commit embargo to Iran rather than wage war in a short peroid. Furthermore, Iran itself cannot suffer from any war since its domestic economy has undertaken lost in the depreciation of exchange rate to US dollar.

◆Other stakeholders are taking different attitude towards to this game:

Russia keeps low profile stating that the Iran problem should be settled by negotiating mainly for the following reseasons, firstly it is a good opportunity for Russia to develop its stragetic expansion on the condition of distraction to the U.S.A by Iran and secondly Iran's nuclear plan will benefit Russia due to their mature cooperation; Israel strongly opposes that any opponents have nuclear plan, thus, it is probably that Israel will wage war to Iran as the desire to defense; China will face the diplomatic challenge in the plight. On one hand, China's import will definitely be influenced by the shutoff of the Strait Hormuz; on the other hand, if other countriessimultaneously consent to embargo Iran, it is hard for China to import oil from Iran as if we were ally.

◆China is preparing to explore domestic oil sources as a response to the potential threats, and the U.S.A. announces that it will spare no efforts including use stragetic reserve to stablize the oil price.

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