金融发展水平对汇率制度的选择效应分析
The Effect of Financial Development on Exchange Rate Regime Choice
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摘要:汇率制度的安排对一国经济发展与金融安全具有极其重要的作用，不同的金融发展水平影响一国汇率制度的选择。从理论上论证在金融约束阶段钉住汇率制是有效的，而在金融自由化阶段浮动汇率制会取得正的经济效益。以金融发展水平作为关键解释变量，结合其他宏观经济变量，构建计量模型。计量结果显示，金融发展水平与汇率制度弹性呈现正相关关系。在当前我国金融基础设施尚不完善之际，人民币汇率制度应在钉住汇率框架内逐渐增加灵活性，待金融自由化条件成熟，再将之变迁至浮动汇率制。Abstract:Exchange rate regime is of great importance to a country’s economic development and financial stability， and the level of financial development is related to it. Firstly， this article analyzes the economic performance of pegged and floating exchange rate regime respectively. In financial restrict stage， the former demonstrates positive economic effect， but in financial liberalization stage， the latter brings about advantage. Following this， it puts forward financial development level as key explanatory variable， and constructs an econometric model. The res ult demonstrates that financial development level and exchange rate regime elasticity are in positive correlation. At present， our financial infrastructure is not robust， and RMB should be more flexible. When financial liberalization is realized， it can be switched to floating exchange regime.
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