国外对华双反联动调查影响因素的实证研究
The Empirical Study on the Decision Factors of Linkage Investigations between Anti-dumping and Countervailing against China
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摘要:根据国外对华双反调查的新情况和新特点,选取2004—2010年美国、加拿大和澳大利亚对华的44起“双反”措施案件,构建了国外对华反倾销反补贴联动调查影响因素的“BC-NB”组合模型,从发起国视角和目标国视角分别选取主要宏观影响因素的相关变量,根据不同视角的特点分别选择定性和计数因变量的研究方法进行验证.实证结果表明进出口贸易状况、汇率状况、经济增长状况和宏观决策因素均是影响反倾销反补贴联动调查的显著影响因素.结合中国贸易救济实践得出建议：改善对外贸易结构,鼓励对外直接投资,有效促进贸易平衡;不断增强中国经济实力,促进中国产业结构升级;反对贸易保护主义,健全并完善中国对外贸易救济体系.Abstract:It is a new situation that Anti-dumping and Countervailing Investigations against China have been in linkage in recent years. According to the new situation and characteristics of the linkage investigations against China, this research made an empirical research by using the related data of 44 Linkage Investigations cases filed against China initiated by United States, Canada, and Australia from the year 2004 to 2010, based on“BC-NB” model of decision factors for linkage investigations between anti-dumping and countervailing. It selected the variables and different methods from the launching perspective and targeted perspective respectively to test and verify. The results show that the import and export trade condition, exchange rate conditions, economic growth situation and macroscopical decision-making factors are all the significant decision factors of the Linkage Investigations between Anti-dumping and Countervailing. In accordance with trade practices in China, it makes the following suggestions: China should improve the structure of foreign trade, encourage foreign direct investment, and promote the trade balance effectively; it should enhance its economic strength constantly, and promote the upgrading of the industrial structure; it should reject trade protectionism, improve and perfect foreign trade remedy system.
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