国际贸易对中国各行业CO2排放影响实证研究
The Empirical Analysis on the Influence of International Trade to Industries’ Embodied Carbon Emissions in China
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摘要:采用非竞争型投入产出模型，运用中国1997年、2002年、2007年的投入产出数据，考虑加工贸易的影响，分15个行业、8种能源来研究中国基于国内生产、消费、出口、进口中的CO2排放及国际贸易中的净排放等问题。结果表明：（1）中国一直是碳贸易净出口国，1997—2007年的CO2排放量持续增长，国内生产大于国内消费的CO2排放量，且出口的CO2排放量占国内生产的CO2排放量的比例很大，这说明出口对中国CO2排放量的影响是不容忽视的。（2）机械设备制造业、化学工业和金属产品制造业是进口和出口CO2排放量相对较大的三个行业。（3）从单位产值看，出口、进口和国内生产的CO2排放强度在1997—2007年持续下降，而国际贸易净值的CO2排放强度1997—2007年一直上升，出口的CO2排放强度要远大于国内生产的CO2排放强度，表明中国净出口的资源和能源正在不断地快速飙升。因此，中国应加大鼓励低耗能、低排放行业的出口，限制高耗能产业的出口，发展太阳能、风能等低碳能源和新能源，从而减少中国的CO2排放量，实现低碳经济增长模式下的可持续发展。Abstract:The paper used an non-competitive input-output model, adopted the Chinese input-output table of 1997, 2002 and 2007, considered the effect of processing trade, and divided all industries into 15 categories and energy resources into 8 categories to analyze the questions concerning CO2 emissions based on China's production, consumption, export, import, and the net CO2 emissions in international trade. The results show that:(1)China was always a country of net carbon export; CO2 emissions were increasing continuously from 1997—2007;CO2 emissions based on China's production were larger than that based on China's consumption; additionally, the proportion of CO2 emissions of export in the CO2 emissions of China's production was high, which indicated that the effect of export to China's CO2 emissions couldn't be ignored. (2)The three industries with greater CO2 emissions based on import and export were always machinery equipment manufacturing industry, chemical industry and metal products manufacturing industry.(3)In terms of unit output value,CO2 emission intensity of China's production, export and import was decreasing continuously from 1997—2007. However, CO2 emission intensity of net trade kept increasing; CO2 emission intensity of export was much greater than that of China's production. It showed that energy and resources were soaring in China's net trade. Therefore, China should encourage the export of industries that are low energy-consuming and low-emission, limit that of high energy-consuming and high-emission industries, develop wind, solar and other low-carbon and new energy resources actively to reduce the CO2 emissions of China, and achieve the goal of sustainable development under a low-carbon growth model.
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