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煤炭城市应对能源价格冲击的政策模拟研究——基于系统动力学

王德鲁,马刚

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文章导航> bob手机在线登陆学报（社会科学版）> 2016> (6): 10-22
王德鲁, 马刚. 煤炭城市应对能源价格冲击的政策模拟研究——基于系统动力学[J]. bob手机在线登陆学报（社会科学版）, 2016, (6): 10-22. doi: 10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2016.0602
引用本文: 王德鲁, 马刚. 煤炭城市应对能源价格冲击的政策模拟研究——基于系统动力学[J]. bob手机在线登陆学报（社会科学版）, 2016, (6): 10-22.doi:10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2016.0602
shu
WANG Delu, MA Gang. The Policy Simulation of Coal Resource-based City Copes with Energy Prices Shock-Based on System Dynamic Model[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology (Social Sciences Edition), 2016, (6): 10-22. doi: 10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2016.0602
Citation: WANG Delu, MA Gang. The Policy Simulation of Coal Resource-based City Copes with Energy Prices Shock-Based on System Dynamic Model[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology (Social Sciences Edition), 2016, (6): 10-22.doi:10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2016.0602
shu

煤炭城市应对能源价格冲击的政策模拟研究——基于系统动力学

doi:10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2016.0602
  • 1.

    中国矿业大学 管理学院, 江苏 徐州 221116

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金资助项目（71573252）;国家软科学研究计划项目资助（2014GXQ4D182）

The Policy Simulation of Coal Resource-based City Copes with Energy Prices Shock-Based on System Dynamic Model

  • 1.

    School of management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116, China

  • 摘要:近年来，煤炭和原油价格的持续下滑对煤炭城市的经济发展带来了前所未有的挑战。以鄂尔多斯市为例，构建煤炭城市应对能源价格冲击的系统动力学模型，并在不同能源价格波动情景和政策情景下，对煤炭产业、煤化工产业、下游工业产业以及整个工业的产值和利润总额进行模拟仿真。结果表明：尽管能源价格下跌对地区非资源型产业的发展具有一定的促进作用，但就总体而言，会对鄂尔多斯的经济发展造成显著的负面影响。不同的政策在能源价格冲击背景下的调控效果也不尽相同，其中加大科研投入和发展替代产业政策对区域工业总产值和总利润的提升效果最为明显；降低增值税政策可以在短期内快速提高工业盈利水平，但是其有效性却呈显著的逐年递减趋势；加大限产力度可以在不损失区域经济总量的情况下，有效地提高其利润总额；而加大金融投入在提高区域工业总产值的同时，会削弱其获利能力。
    Abstract:In recent years,the economic development of coal resource-based cities are facing unprecedented challenges due to the decline of coal price and crude oil price. Taking Ordos as the sample,we built the system dynamic model of the coal resource-based city copes with energy prices shock,and simulated the output value and total profit of coal industry,coal-chemical industry,downstream industries of coal and coal-chemical industries and the gross industries under different energy prices scenarios and regulatory policy scenarios. The results show that:the energy prices slump has certain stimulating function for the economic development of the downstream industries of coal and coal-chemical industries,however,on the whole,it caused negative effect on the economic development of Ordos. The regulatory effects of different policies are different under energy prices slump scenarios. Increasing technology investment and developing alternative industries have the most significant effect on the rising of whole industries' output value and total profit. Decreasing the value-added tax can increase industrial output value and profit quickly in the short term,while its long-term effect is significantly decreasing annually. Limit production policy can improve the total profit of the whole industries significantly and does not reduce the size of the economy. Financial support can increase the output value of gross industries,but it also does serious impact on the profit of gross industries.
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  • 收稿日期:2016-04-01
  • 刊出日期:2016-11-25

煤炭城市应对能源价格冲击的政策模拟研究——基于系统动力学

doi:10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2016.0602
  • 1. 中国矿业大学 管理学院, 江苏 徐州 221116
    • 基金项目:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目（71573252）;国家软科学研究计划项目资助（2014GXQ4D182）

  • 收稿日期:2016-04-01
  • 刊出日期:2016-11-25

摘要:近年来，煤炭和原油价格的持续下滑对煤炭城市的经济发展带来了前所未有的挑战。以鄂尔多斯市为例，构建煤炭城市应对能源价格冲击的系统动力学模型，并在不同能源价格波动情景和政策情景下，对煤炭产业、煤化工产业、下游工业产业以及整个工业的产值和利润总额进行模拟仿真。结果表明：尽管能源价格下跌对地区非资源型产业的发展具有一定的促进作用，但就总体而言，会对鄂尔多斯的经济发展造成显著的负面影响。不同的政策在能源价格冲击背景下的调控效果也不尽相同，其中加大科研投入和发展替代产业政策对区域工业总产值和总利润的提升效果最为明显；降低增值税政策可以在短期内快速提高工业盈利水平，但是其有效性却呈显著的逐年递减趋势；加大限产力度可以在不损失区域经济总量的情况下，有效地提高其利润总额；而加大金融投入在提高区域工业总产值的同时，会削弱其获利能力。

English Abstract

王德鲁, 马刚. 煤炭城市应对能源价格冲击的政策模拟研究——基于系统动力学[J]. bob手机在线登陆学报（社会科学版）, 2016, (6): 10-22. doi: 10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2016.0602
引用本文: 王德鲁, 马刚. 煤炭城市应对能源价格冲击的政策模拟研究——基于系统动力学[J]. bob手机在线登陆学报（社会科学版）, 2016, (6): 10-22.doi:10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2016.0602
shu
WANG Delu, MA Gang. The Policy Simulation of Coal Resource-based City Copes with Energy Prices Shock-Based on System Dynamic Model[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology (Social Sciences Edition), 2016, (6): 10-22. doi: 10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2016.0602
Citation: WANG Delu, MA Gang. The Policy Simulation of Coal Resource-based City Copes with Energy Prices Shock-Based on System Dynamic Model[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology (Social Sciences Edition), 2016, (6): 10-22.doi:10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2016.0602
shu
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