The Tempo-spatial Difference of Urbanization on Construction Sector Carbon Emissions in China
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摘要:在分析城镇化对建筑业碳排放影响机理的基础上，采用LMDI分解法将城镇化对建筑业碳排放的影响分解为规模效应（包括固定资产投资效益效应、居民收入效应、人口密度效应和空间规模效应）、结构效应和技术效应，并进一步分析各效应对城镇化不同阶段及各个省市建筑业碳排放的影响。研究结果表明：（1）从时间上看，在城镇化由初级发展到中级再到高级阶段的过程中，固定资产投资效益效应和结构效应的作用程度均不断增强，不同的是前者具有促进作用（1 937.11万吨、12 941.27万吨、36 948.37万吨），后者具有抑制作用（-413.69万吨、-13 824.62万吨、-14 149.08万吨）；其余效应的作用程度均呈现"倒U形"变化趋势，但是作用方向不同，其中居民收入效应（-180.41万吨、-1 862.58万吨、-522.86万吨）和人口密度效应（-298.85万吨、-5 303.46万吨、-1 538.78万吨）均具有抑制作用，空间规模效应具有促进作用（1 654.67万吨、13 750.80万吨、6 013.79万吨），技术效应则先促进后抑制（3 805.32万吨、32 526.22万吨、-9 053.30万吨）。（2）从空间上看，固定资产投资效益效应在处于城镇化高级阶段以及初级、中级阶段的省市分别具有促进和抑制作用，贡献程度均非常突出（第一位或第二位）；居民收入效应在经济发达省市具有抑制作用，欠发达省市仍具有促进作用，贡献微弱；人口密度效应仅在北京、天津、上海、河北具有促进作用，贡献程度较小（多为第五位）；空间规模效应在各省市均具有促进作用，特别是在中级阶段的省市贡献较突出（前三位）；结构效应贡献也非常突出（第一位或第二位），在各省市的作用方向与固定资产投资效益效应相反；技术效应仅在江苏、新疆具有抑制作用，在各省市作用程度差异较大。认为，政府应依据所处城镇化阶段，有针对性地制定低碳城镇发展规划和建筑业节能减排措施的政策。Abstract:Based on the analysis of the mechanism of urbanization on carbon emissions of construction sector, applying the LMDI decomposition method, this paper decomposes the effects of urbanization on carbon emissions of the construction sector into scale effect(including fixed asset investment benefit effect, household income effect, population density effect and space scale effect), structure effect, and technical effect, and further analyzes the impact of these effects on carbon emissions of the construction sector in different urbanization stages and provinces. Results indicate that:(1)from the temporal perspective, in the process of urbanization from the primary stage to the intermediate stage to the advanced stage, both the fixed asset investment benefit effect and the structural effect have been continuously enhanced on carbon emissions of the construction sector, the difference is that the former effect has a positive impact(19.37 million t, 129.41 million t, and 369.48 million t),the latter effect has a negative impact(-4.14 million t, -138.25 million t, and -141.49 million t);while the other effects all have shown the "inverted U" trend, but with different directions. Among the other effects, both household income effect(-1.80 million t, -18.63 million t, and -5.23 million t)and population density effect(-2.99 million t, -53.04 million t, and -15.39 million t)have negative impacts, the space scale effect has a positive impact(16.55 million t, 137.51 million t, and 60.14 million t),the technical effect has a positive impact firstly and then a negative impact(38.05 million t, 325.26 million t, and -90.53 million t).(2)From the spatial perspective, the fixed asset investment benefit effect has a positive impact in the advanced stage, a negative impact in the intermediate and advanced stages, with a prominent contribution rate(the first or the second place);the household income effect negatively influences economically developed provinces, and it positively influences economically underdeveloped provinces with weak contributions; the population density effect, only in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Hebei, has a positive impact, but its contribution rate is relatively low(mostly ranking the fifth place);the space scale effect has a positive impact in all provinces, especially prominent in provinces and cities of the intermediate stage(top three);the structure effect has made outstanding contributions(ranking the first or the second),and its outcome is opposite to that of the fixed asset investment benefit effect in each province; the technical effect only has a negative effect in Jiangsu and Xinjiang, the contribution rate in different provinces varies greatly. Finally, this paper indicates that the government should firstly consider the stage of urbanization, and then formulate the low-carbon urban development planning and the energy-saving and emission reduction measures in the construction industry.
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