The Influence of Industry Agglomeration on Manufacturing Green Total Factor Productivity -Empirical Analysis based on Short and Long Term Industrial Heterogeneity
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摘要:采用2006-2015年制造业行业的面板数据，从行业异质性视角入手，运用广义最小二乘法和变系数模型，实证检验了产业集聚对制造业绿色全要素生产率的差异化影响效应、异质滞后效应、异质交互效应以及异质短期波动效应。研究表明：多数行业的产业集聚显著地推动了绿色全要素生产率的提升，但部分行业的影响效应并不显著甚至呈现出负相关关系。这说明产业集聚并不是在所有行业都表现为规模效应，部分行业的拥挤效应超过了规模效应。从滞后效应来看，每个行业随着滞后期的增加表现出异质性的变化规律：正（负）向效应逐渐增强、逐渐减弱、先增强后减弱、先减弱后增强、一直不显著等。从交互效应来看，企业平均规模越小的行业越容易从产业集聚中获取正向效应；大部分行业的国有产权和资产专用性都在一定程度上对产业集聚的绿色生产率效应的发挥产生了抑制作用，但少数行业与之相反，如交通运输设备制造业、医药制造业等，这些行业的国有产权和资产专用性反而发挥了正面效应；在短期内，大部分行业的产业集聚并不能有效推进绿色全要素生产率的增长，只有纺织服装鞋帽制造业、非金属矿物制品业和专用设备制造业的产业集聚的短期效应显著；从长短期效应的对比来看，大部分行业的长期和短期效应呈现出差异化特征。因此，政府在制定集聚政策时不应该忽略不同行业的差异，对所有制造业行业采取"一刀切"的集聚促进措施，而应根据不同行业的具体影响规律和所处的集聚阶段，制定有针对性的，动态调整的集聚政策。Abstract:In this paper, using panel data from 2006 to 2015 of the manufacturing industry, and from the perspective of industry heterogeneity, the generalized least squares method and the variable coefficient model were used to test the difference effect of industrial agglomeration on the green total factor productivity in manufacturing industry, heterogeneous hysteresis effect, heterogeneous interaction effect and heterogeneous short-term fluctuation effect. The research showed that in most industries industrial agglomeration significantly promoted the green total factor productivity, but the effects of some industries were not significant or even negatively correlated. This showed that industrial agglomeration did not show the scale effect in all industries, and the congestion effect in some industries exceeded the scale effect. From the perspective of lagged effect, each industry showed a heterogeneous variation with lag period:positive(negative)direction effect gradually increased, gradually weakened, first increased and then decreased, first decreased and then increased, always remained insignificant and so on. From the perspective of interactive effect, the smaller the average size of the business sector, the more likely to get positive effects from industrial agglomeration; in most industries, the state-owned property rights and asset specificity all played a restraining role to a certain extent in the green productivity effect of industrial agglomeration. However, on the contrary, in a few industries such as transportation equipment manufacturing and pharmaceutical manufacturing, state-owned property and asset specificity played a positive role; in the short term, industrial agglomeration in most industries did not effectively promote the growth of green TFP. Only the short-term effects of industrial agglomeration in the manufacturing of textile, clothing, shoes and hats, non-metallic mineral products and special equipment manufacturing industry were significant. Meanwhile, the long-term and short-term effects of most industries showed a differentiated feature. Therefore, when formulating a policy of agglomeration, the government should not neglect the differences among different industries and adopt a "one-size-fits-all" measure. Instead, the government should formulate targeted measures and dynamic policies according to the specific impact laws and the agglomeration stages in different industries.
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