“Non-Shock Ignition Probability of Octahydro-1,3,5,7Tetranitro-Tetrazocine-Based Polymer Bonded Explosives Based on Microcrack Stochastic Distribution”是Propellants, Explosives, Pyrotechnics期刊封面文章（2020, 45, 568-580）。本项工作考虑了PBX炸药初始裂纹非均匀性，结合材料宏细观本构模型和Monte-Carlo方法，阐述了PBX炸药点火不确定性的机理。第一作者刘睿是机电学院助理教授，通讯作者是机电学院陈鹏万教授，合作作者是北京航空航天大学张晓天副教授和电子科技大学朱顺鹏教授共同完成。

论文摘要：

We investigate stochastic microcracks of a heterogeneous microstructure as the primary mechanism determining the non-shock ignition probability of octahydro1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,2,3,5-tetrazocine-based polymer-bonded explosives. To quantify the ignition probability, we modify the viscoelastic cracking constitutive model by considering randomly distributed microcracks and combine this model with the hot-spot model and the Monte Carlo method. This method is validated by using a standard Steven test simulation, and we quantify how the microcrack stochasticity affects the ignition probability. The high-temperature region clearly changes compared with the case of single microcrack size. The discrepancy in the mechanical response of each element due to the heterogeneous microcracks causes a shear deformation, which increases the temperature. The difference between a uniform distribution and a normal distribution in microcrack size is also discussed. For a given impact velocity, the ignition probability for the normal microcrack size distribution exceeds that for the uniform microcrack size distribution. Although the two distributions have the same mean and variance, the real range in microcrack size corresponding to the normal distribution exceeds that for the uniform distribution. The results show that the sample radius does not significantly affect the ignition probability, whereas the opposite is true for the sample thickness. The ignition-probability curve is obtained in these cases. For sample dimensions of ϕ70 mm×13 mm, ϕ98 mm×13 mm, ϕ140 mm×13 mm, and ϕ98 mm× 26 mm, the impact velocity thresholds corresponding to ignition probabilities in the range 0%–99% are 41.0–43.7, 41.0–44.3, 40.0–44.6, and 62.0–67.2 m/s, respectively, which is consistent with experimental results.

（论文链接：https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/prep.201900313）